Factors such as production cuts or maintenance at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises persist, with attention on the extent of lead ingot destocking's impact on lead prices. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Minutes]

Futures:

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,983/mt, fluctuated upward during the Asian session due to a decline in LME lead inventory, and touched a high of $1,996.5/mt upon entering the European session. It then pulled back as bears increased their positions, probing a low of $1,977/mt before finally settling at $1,981/mt.

On Friday evening, the most-traded SHFE lead 2601 contract opened at 17,100 yuan/mt, lightly touched a high of 17,175 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session before pulling back. It traded weakly with consolidation due to bears increasing positions, finally settling at a low of 17,080 yuan/mt, down 0.06%, forming a bearish candlestick with a long lower shadow.

On the Macro Front:

CME Group experienced a hours-long outage last Friday due to a cooling system issue at a data center. Trump again urged the Supreme Court to make the correct ruling on tariff issues. Attention is on the nomination for US Fed Chairman.

China's Ministry of Finance: The total operating revenue of state-owned enterprises was 68,352.93 billion yuan, up 0.9% YoY; the total profits of state-owned enterprises were 3,421.44 billion yuan, down 3% YoY. Tianfeng Securities: The company was placed under investigation for suspected illegal information disclosure and illegal provision of financing. The People's Bank of China: Will continue to uphold the prohibitive policy on virtual currencies and persistently crack down on illegal financial activities related to virtual currencies. National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2%, indicating an improvement in the level of prosperity. The November 2025 steel PMI showed: Industry operations slowed down somewhat, with off-season characteristics gradually emerging.

:

SHFE lead rebounded after stopping its decline. Suppliers showed improved willingness to sell, with relatively more quotations, while downstream enterprises purchased as needed and were cautious about purchasing some high-priced lead. Some suppliers subsequently lowered their premiums (against the SMM #1 lead average price). Quotations from mainstream producing areas were at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1# lead average price ex-works, while a few transactions at premiums of 80-100 yuan/mt were difficult. Additionally, secondary lead enterprises also showed improved willingness to sell, with enterprises that had suspended quotations resuming them. Most secondary refined lead was quoted at premiums of 25-70 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead price ex-works.

Inventory: On November 28, LME lead inventory decreased by 1,000 mt to 263,175 mt. As of November 27, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions tracked by SMM fell to 35,000 mt, down 2,700 mt from November 20 and down 2,000 mt from November 24.

Today's Lead Price Forecast:

Entering December, factors such as production cuts or maintenance at primary lead and secondary lead enterprises persist, leading to regionally tight supply of lead ingots. Meanwhile, lead consumption has relatively improved. Lead ingot inventory is expected to remain low, providing some support to lead prices. Subsequent attention will be focused on the year-end routine inventory buildup trends of downstream enterprises. If the destocking scale of lead ingots expands, lead prices will gradually rebound.

Data Source Statement: Except for publicly available information, other data are processed by SMM based on public information, market communication, and SMM's internal database model, for reference only and do not constitute decision-making advice.